The Glasers
  • Home
  • About the Glasers
  • What We Offer
    • Products
    • Online Learning
  • Testimonials
    • Testimonials - All
  • Contact
  • Online Learning Testimonials Page
  • 2020 BTC Full Course Descriptions
  • 2021 BreakThrough Communication
  • 2021 The Results Are In
  • Sustain the Change

To Explain Probability, Use a Story

3/13/2018

0 Comments

 
Picture
In the 1970s, renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman suggested giving government officials estimated probabilities of events. Looking back years later, Kahneman changed his mind, saying: “No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.” (Tweet it!)

In the past year, many of us have been surprised by certain outcomes, many of them political, and we complain that our prediction models are incorrect. But the models are not incorrect: It is just that we tend to misinterpret numbers that tell us “this has a 10 percent chance of happening” as virtually no chance at all.

In a New York Times column entitled “What I Was Wrong About This Year”, pundit David Leonhardt writes that probabilities “are inherently hard to grasp. That’s especially true for an individual event, like a war or election. People understand that if they roll dice 100 times, they will get some 1’s. But when they see a probability for one event, they tend to think: Is this going to happen or not? They then effectively round to 0 or to 100 percent.”

But what if a probability came with a story? “Imagine that a forecast giving Candidate X a 10 percent chance included a prominent link, “How X wins.” It would explain how the polling could be off and include a winning map for X. It would all but shout: This really may happen.”

As Leonhardt says, this won't eliminate confusion, but it might minimize it. “The rise of big data means that probabilities are becoming a larger part of life. And our misunderstandings have real costs.”

Do you feel anecdotal explanations of probabilities would help you understand odds better? Have you ever used one, and can you give an example? To join the conversation, click "comments" above.

If you would like to read more about creating a habit around masterful communication, check out our book: Be Quiet, Be Heard: The Paradox of Persuasion.

0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013

    Categories

    All
    BreakThrough Conflict
    Children & Young Adult
    Community Of Practice
    Hardwiring Teamwork
    Leadership
    Persuasion And Influence

Advanced Learning
Communication Capsule Blog
Research
Press/Media Resources
Organizational Culture Survey
III Survey
Resources
CoreSkills
Glaser & Associates, Inc.
Executive Offices
1740 Craigmont Avenue, Eugene, OR 97405
541-343-7575 | 800-980-0321
info@theglasers.com
Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions
© 2019 Glaser & Associates.  All Rights Reserved.
  • Home
  • About the Glasers
  • What We Offer
    • Products
    • Online Learning
  • Testimonials
    • Testimonials - All
  • Contact
  • Online Learning Testimonials Page
  • 2020 BTC Full Course Descriptions
  • 2021 BreakThrough Communication
  • 2021 The Results Are In
  • Sustain the Change